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How Trump’s 2024 candidacy could hurt GOP chances in 2022

Midterm would normally be a referendum on Biden’s party

ANALYSIS — After President Donald Trump boosted down-ballot Republicans in 2020, the GOP might be excited about his reported plans to avenge his loss by immediately beginning a race for the presidency in 2024. But while he delivered the White House once before and has shown a unique ability to consistently outperform the polls, his candidacy could jeopardize GOP gains in the 2022 midterm elections.

Even though the president fell short of former Vice President Joe Biden in the popular vote and in the Electoral College, Republicans are generally grateful that he kept the race close, in the right places, for the party to come within a handful of seats of a majority in the House and be in prime position to maintain their majority in the Senate. The fact that this combination of outcomes flew in the face of expectations of Democrats and most of the media is just more fuel for their partisan fire.

The results give Republicans little incentive to back away from Trump or try to steer the party in a different direction, even though he lost. But his future public profile, including another run for president, is going to make things complicated for the GOP. Continue reading.

Data and Research Manager: