U.S. government debt will nearly equal the size of the entire economy for first time since World War II, CBO finds

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Report comes after huge increase in the deficit this year as government attempted to limit coronavirus fallout

For the first time since World War II, the U.S. government’s debt will roughly equal the size of the entire American economy by the end of this year, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.

The rapid change is largely due to the surge in new spending that the government authorized as it tried to control the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

By the end of 2020, the amount of debt owed by the United States will amount to 98 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product, the CBO said. That is up from 79 percent last year. Total government debt will surpass the U.S. economy’s size next year, the CBO said. Continue reading.

Republicans prove they’ll never miss an opportunity to help the top 1% — not even during a pandemic

AlterNet logoWhich of the following statements do you think are true?

1) Republicans used the massive coronavirus relief package passed in late March (the CARES Act) to slip, at the last minute, more than $100 billion over a decade to households earning more than $1 million per year.

2) Republicans used the CARES Act to attack the few measures from the 2017 Trump Rich Man’s Tax Cut that were designed to bring in at least some revenue from multimillionaires. Continue reading.

Washington’s recession-fighting toolbox is nearly empty as US economy braces for possible coronavirus outbreak

Investors, policymakers, businesses and the general public are increasingly concerned the coronavirus’ rapid spread will lead to a recession. While this outcome is hard for economists like me to predict, we do know one thing: The U.S. is not prepared to fight a deep recession.

Policymakers basically have two methods for reversing a downturn: monetary stimulus, primarily through reduced borrowing costs; and fiscal stimulus, when the government spends more or cuts taxes.

Unfortunately, the U.S. currently has dim prospects for success with either option. Continue reading.

Mnuchin Again Insists 2017 Tax Cuts Will ‘Pay For Themselves’

Trump administration officials continue to make wildly inaccurate statements about the economic impact of the Republican 2017 tax law. On Wednesday, contrary to all available evidence, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told the Senate Finance Committee that he stands by previous administration claims that the tax cuts “will pay for themselves.”

“This will be simple math,” Mnuchin testified under oath. “We measure this over 10 years. We got eight years left. I look forward to writing the committee a letter in eight years going through all the exact numbers.”

Mnuchin’s claim, flagged by American Bridge, a progressive opposition research organization, is widely disputed by experts, even experts who tout the benefits of the 2017 law. Continue reading.

Deficit spikes 25 percent through January

The Hill logoThe federal deficit through January climbed to $389 billion, a 25 percent spike over the same period last year, according to Treasury Department data released Wednesday.

The Treasury estimates the deficit will surpass $1 trillion this year for the first time since 2012.

Overall receipts were down since last year by $68 billion, largely due to a drop in individual corporate taxes. Spending, in the meantime, was up $147 billion, as outlays spiked on defense, health, veterans affairs and Social Security. Continue reading.

Trump’s proposed budget is entirely dishonest — except in its alarming clues about a second Trump term

Washington Post logoPRESIDENT TRUMP’S proposed budget for fiscal year 2021, which begins in October, is a dishonest exercise. In some respects, that’s not unusual. Mr. Trump is hardly the first president to obey his legal requirement to present a spending plan to Congress by sending one that has no chance of passing. In fact, Mr. Trump signed legislation — a two-year budget agreement last August — that would have to be repealed if this budget proposal were to become operative.

Nor is he the first to engage in rosy forecasting — but in this case, the exaggeration is especially flagrant. Mr. Trump misleadingly projects a future of declining federal deficits in part by claiming economic growth significantly exceeding consensus forecasts. The Trump budget beats the Congressional Budget Office’s projection for the annual growth rate a decade hence by more than a percentage point, enabling him to claim an extra $4.5 trillion in 10-year deficit reduction, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Also not forthright is the underlying assumption of the budget, which is that the country’s structural fiscal deficits (to the extent Mr. Trump considers them a priority, which his record to date shows he does not) can be addressed almost entirely through cuts to nondefense discretionary spending, such as the 13 percent cut Mr. Trump would administer to the Interior Department or the 21 percent cut he seeks for foreign aid. In fact, additional revenue, too, is necessary, yet Mr. Trump’s budget adds $1.5 trillion to the next 10 years’ debt by assuming that the individual income tax cut he and a GOP Congress enacted in December 2017 will be extended beyond their scheduled December 2025 sunset.

Expert: US corporate tax receipts lower than all but Latvia

Ways and Means heard from a Harvard professor on how corporate tax revenues dropped after the 2017 tax overhaul

After GOP lawmakers and the Trump administration slashed the corporate income tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent two years ago, corporate tax revenue as a share of gross domestic product is lower in the United States than any of 30 developed countries — with the exception of Latvia.

That’s the conclusion of Jason Furman, a Harvard University economics professor who testified before the House Ways and Means Committee Tuesday. “Corporate revenue collections are very low” both historically and compared to other advanced economies, said Furman, who served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama.

While there are estimates that corporate tax collections will grow slightly as a percentage of GDP in coming years, that likelihood will evaporate if business provisions in the 2017 tax law are made permanent, Furman added, chiefly those allowing more generous equipment expensing. Continue reading.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom Dings Trump’s $3 Trillion Pricetag For His ‘Booming’ Economy

The president is piling on debt for U.S. taxpayers, while California has a surplus, Newsom crows.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom stacked up his state’s financials against America’s and mocked Donald Trump for racking up an extra $3 trillion in debt for what the president characterizes as a “booming” national economy.

Trump promised to balance the budget when he was campaigning, but the national debt has now reached a record of more than $23 trillion. (“Who the hell cares about the budget?” Trump asked donors at a fundraiser last month.)

California, meanwhile, is reporting “record surpluses,” low unemployment and high job growth, the Democratic governor tweeted Thursday. “Progressive policies and economic growth DO go hand-in-hand.”

Deficit widens, economic growth slows in new CBO outlook

Repeal of health care taxes the largest driver of 10-year deficit increase, according to projections

The Congressional Budget Office projects higher deficits for this year and the coming decade, with a fiscal 2020 deficit of $1.015 trillion — $8 billion higher than the agency estimated last August.

The fiscal 2019 deficit was $984 billion, by comparison.

Over the next decade, the cumulative deficit outlined in the agency’s latest budget and economic outlook released Tuesday is estimated at $12.4 trillion, $160 billion more than the earlier projection. Continue reading.

Are Trump and his ilk manipulating the markets for personal gain? Investigative business reporter William Cohan lays out the evidence

AlterNet logoDonald Trump has been impeached by the House of Representatives for abuse of power and obstructing a congressional investigation into his attempt to blackmail a foreign country into aiding him in the 2020 presidential election. He is now the third president in American history to have earned that ignominious distinction.

Trump will not be convicted by the Republicans in the Senate for his crimes.

The public evidence is damning. There is no evidence that could possibly exonerate him. Trump is publicly bragging about committing crimes against the Constitution and the American people. The Republican Party and its propaganda news media have decided to ignore reality and fully immerse themselves in TrumpWorld. They have pledged total loyalty to him and no evidence will move them. The Republicans and their news media and public are authoritarian lemmings. Continue reading.