Over the past week, the number of deaths thought to be caused by COVID-19 has nearly doubled, from about 16,000 to 30,000. New York City changed the way it counts its death toll on Tuesday to include people who did not receive a positive COVID-19 test but who were likely to have died from the virus. That increased the number of the city’s coronavirus death estimate by 3,700 to more than 10,000.
The number of cases and fatalities continue to change rapidly, so to get a better understanding of where they’re headed, we’ve been following a weekly survey of infectious-disease researchers from institutions around the U.S.
This week’s survey, conducted April 13 and 14, shows that the expert consensus is that reported deaths will increase to around 47,000 by May 1, although they think there could be as many as 82,000 by that time. The experts also think fatalities are most likely to peak in May, but they still see about a 1 in 3 chance that deaths won’t peak until June or later. They also expect that between eight and 11 states will report more than 1,000 deaths by May 1. Continue reading.