These 4 states could decide control of Congress in 2022

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Watch Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona

ANALYSIS — More than 16 months before Election Day, new House district lines haven’t even been drawn, and yet the fight for Congress is likely to hinge on the outcomes in four critical states.

On a basic level, every state matters in the Senate, considering Republicans need to gain just a single seat to get to the majority. Each significant recruitment development (such as if GOP Gov. Chris Sununu challenges Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire) would instantly affect the handicapping of a race and the fight for control. But there are other states less dependent on a single candidate.

Every seat also matters in the House, where Republicans need a net gain of five seats for a majority — a paltry number in a body of 435 members and in the face of the midterm history, which favors the party out of the White House. And some states, such as Texas, are of particular importance to one of the chambers. But a handful of states are hosting competitive races that will affect control of both the House and the Senate. Continue reading.

Democratic Report Raises 2022 Alarms on Messaging and Voter Outreach

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A new report, in perhaps the most thorough soul-searching done by either party this year, points to an urgent need for the party to present a positive economic agenda and rebut Republican misinformation.

Democrats defeated President Donald J. Trump and captured the Senate last year with a racially diverse coalition that delivered victories by tiny margins in key states like Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.

In the next election, they cannot count on repeating that feat, a new report warns.

A review of the 2020 election, conducted by several prominent Democratic advocacy groups, has concluded that the party is at risk of losing ground with Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters unless it does a better job presenting an economic agenda and countering Republican efforts to spread misinformation and tie all Democratic candidates to the far left. Continue reading.

Democrats confront difficult prospects for midterms

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House Democrats are beginning to confront the challenging reality awaiting them in the 2022 midterm elections amid a spate of retirements and dim redistricting prospects.

Democrats had hoped that brightening economic and public health outlooks combined with ongoing discord within the GOP would save them from the kind of electoral thrashing that historically besets the president’s party in midterm elections.

But privately, some in the party are beginning to acknowledge the uphill battle they will face next year when their narrow majorities in the House and Senate will be on the line. Continue reading.