Tag: social distancing

Here’s How the Pandemic Finally Ends

A vaccine by early 2021, a steady decline in cases by next fall and back to normal in a few years—11 top experts look into the future.

The microscopic bundles of RNA, wrapped in spiky proteins, latch on to human cells, hijack them, use them as factories to replicate, and then leave them for dead. It’s a biological blitzkrieg—an invasion so swift and unexpected that the germs are free to jump from host to host with little interference.

Fast forward to the future. Now, when the prickly enemies invade the lungs, they slip past the human cells, unable to take hold. They’re marked for destruction, soon to be surrounded and eliminated. Though some escape through the airways, they confront the same defenses in their next target—if, that is, they can get anywhere near the human cells. There are so few people left to infect that the germs have nowhere to replicate, nowhere to survive.

This is the end of the coronavirus pandemic. And this is how it could happen in the United States: By November 2021, most Americans have received two doses of a vaccine that, while not gloriously effective, fights the disease in more cases than not. Meanwhile, Americans continue to wear masks and avoid large gatherings, and the Covid-19 numbers drop steadily after a series of surges earlier in the year. Eventually, as more and more Americans develop immunity through exposure and vaccination, and as treatments become more effective, Covid-19 recedes into the swarm of ordinary illnesses Americans get every winter. Continue reading.

Masks help stop the spread of coronavirus – the science is simple and I’m one of 100 experts urging governors to require public mask-wearing

I’m a data scientist at the University of San Francisco and teach courses online in machine learning for fast.ai. In late March, I decided to use public mask-wearing as a case study to show my students how to combine and analyze diverse types of data and evidence.

Much to my surprise, I discovered that the evidence for wearing masks in public was very strong. It appeared that universal mask-wearing could be one of the most important tools in tackling the spread of COVID-19. Yet the people around me weren’t wearing masks and health organizations in the U.S. weren’t recommending their use.

I, along with 18 other experts from a variety of disciplines, conducted a review of the research on public mask-wearing as a tool to slow the spread SARS-CoV-2. We published a preprint of our paper on April 12 and it is now awaiting peer review at the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Continue reading.

Everyday ethics: When should we lift the lockdown?

The moral question at issue here is enormous: “How much is a human life worth?”

If we are willing to trade risk to human life for expected economic benefit, it requires us to engage in a sort of analysis employed by utilitarians – moral philosophers who believe in promoting the greatest amount of happiness for the greatest number of people – and also to put a price on human health. This may sound shocking, but people do this every day: Insurance actuaries, military strategists and traffic planners routinely face difficult questions on how much a human life will “cost.”

But if we consider it moral to keep cars on the roads, while also understanding that approximately 40,000 people die in traffic accidents in the U.S. every year, we had better be confident in our calculations. According to the utilitarian, if the numbers change, the moral calculus could flip. Continue reading.

Minnesotans to get two more weeks of stay-at-home, but with new flexibility

A statewide stay-at-home order will remain in place for at least another two weeks in Minnesota, as health officials try to thread the needle between protecting the public from COVID-19 and allowing businesses to resume.

Gov. Tim Walz on Thursday announced the extension until May 18 of the stay-at-home order, which otherwise expired Monday, but with new flexibility allowing retailers to reopen with curbside pickup or delivery for customers.

The decision will put 30,000 Minnesotans in retail businesses back to work, and the governor said he was open to further efforts to dial back restrictions as long as it doesn’t result in flare-ups like the outbreak among JBS pork plant workers in Worthington that exploded in one week. Continue reading.

Fauci: ‘Looks like’ US deaths will be lower than original projection

The Hill logoAnthony Fauci said Wednesday morning that he thinks the number of U.S. deaths from coronavirus will end up being less than the original projection of 100,000 to 200,000.

Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, attributed the drop to the success of social distancing measures that have directed people to stay home and closed many businesses.

“Although one of the original models projected 100- to 200,000 deaths, as we’re getting more data and seeing the positive effect of mitigation, those numbers are going to be downgraded,” Fauci said on Fox News. “I don’t know exactly what the numbers are going to be, but right now it looks like it’s going to be less than the original projection.” Continue reading.

Minnesota might just be flattening that coronavirus curve

There are days when we feel like very little can get us through this wild, weird time, so hopefully this will help.

This quarantined, self-isolated thing we’re doing as a state? It’s working.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has been modeling possible outcomes for the coronavirus outbreak in order to help policymakers and health professionals prepare. At this early stage, nothing is certain.

But current data show that Minnesota’s fatal cases have not been increasing at an exponential rate. We were up to 30 total deaths and just shy of 1,000 confirmed cases as of Monday afternoon. Continue reading.

Cities That Went All In on Social Distancing in 1918 Emerged Stronger for It

New York Times logoThey had lower mortality rates from the influenza pandemic. But their economies also appeared to fare better.

As the first local influenza deaths were counted in the fall of 1918, officials in Minneapolis moved quickly — more aggressively than even state health officials thought was wise — and shut down the city. They closed schools, churches, theaters and pool halls, effective midnight on Oct. 12.

Across the Mississippi River, St. Paul remained largely open into November, with its leaders confident they had the epidemic under control. Fully three weeks after Minneapolis — with The St. Paul Pioneer Press pleading “In Heaven’s Name Do Something!” — St. Paul ordered sweeping closures, too.

Both cities, relative to the worst-hit parts of the country, escaped steep death tolls. But the mortality rate in Minneapolis was considerably lower than in St. Paul. And as researchers today look back on those interventions, it appears the economy in Minneapolis emerged stronger, too. Continue reading.

Can Democracy Survive Coronavirus?

The pandemic threatens elections, and experts worry Americans’ rights could be curtailed.

STATE PRIMARY ELECTIONS have been delayed, and experts fret about how to hold a credible and accessible general election in November. Congress is out until at least April 20, and many state legislatures have suspended their sessions. Government buildings are closed. The Trump administration wants “emergency” powers to allow suspects to be detained indefinitely, while abroad, world leaders are using the pandemic to seize more power.

The novel coronavirus has already claimed the lives of more than 50,000 people worldwide. Will democracy be the next casualty?

Crises often lead governments to take extraordinary measures, whether it’s increasing security, expanding surveillance and other government powers or limiting rights citizens had come to take for granted. But the global pandemic presents risks to democratic institutions unprecedented in modern times, experts say, whether it’s unsavory leaders using the virus as an excuse to demand more authority or civically inclined officials struggling to figure out how to keep democratic institutions going without endangering public health. Continue reading.

MN GOP Chair Accuses Democrats of “Communist Control” for Social Distancing

SAINT PAUL, MINNESOTA – Yesterday, the Chair of the Minnesota Republican Party, Jennifer Carnahan, took to Twitter to allege that “Democrats have turned Coronavirus into an excuse for extreme communist control,” due to social distancing measures implemented in the city of Minneapolis.

The full text of Carnahan’s tweet reads as follows:

“Was it necessary for Minneapolis to close the beaches for the summer in early Apr? Much can unfold, change & transpire between now/then. The Democrats have turned Coronavirus into an excuse for extreme communist control. Wake up people!”

Ken Martin, Chairman of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party issued the following statement in response:

“I am shocked that the Chair of the Minnesota Republican Party would undermine important social distancing measures to score cheap political points. Jennifer Carnahan’s allegation that Democrats are using COVID-19 to push ‘extreme communist control’ is as ignorant as it is dangerous.

“Political leaders from both parties agree that the COVID-19 outbreak is the worst public health crisis our nation has seen in a century. New York City is converting convention centers to field hospitals and the Pentagon is preparing to distribute 100,000 body bags for the people this virus kills. In the midst of so much tragedy, uncertainty, and chaos, it is astonishing that the head of the Minnesota Republican Party felt it was appropriate to launch a hackneyed political attack because Minneapolis city officials are trying to keep Minnesotans safe.

“Giving up swimming in our beautiful Minneapolis beaches this summer is the least we can do to protect the lives of Minnesotans and prevent this scourge from spreading even further. Thousands of people are dying and will die because of the cavalier attitude of people who are putting their own privilege ahead of our community.  I sincerely hope this outbreak comes to a swift end. However, until it does, it is vital that we adhere to strict social distancing guidelines in order to protect ourselves, our loved ones, and our communities.”

 

Trump resists pressure to declare nationwide stay-at-home order

The Hill logoPresident Trump is holding back on declaring a nationwide stay-at-home order, even as some governors resist imposing restrictions that Trump’s top public health officials say are needed to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

The president has been reluctant to wade into matters he argues are better left to governors. But the pressure is growing for Trump to be decisive as Republican-led states like Texas, Iowa and Missouri are among the final holdouts to issue stay-at-home directives.

Lawrence Gostin, director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University, said Trump may not have the legal authority to halt interstate travel or require governors to lock down a state. But the president has yet to fully use the power of his bully pulpit to encourage them to do so. Continue reading.