The Daily 202: 10 midterm takeaways

THE BIG IDEA: The 2018 midterm elections were a referendum on Donald Trump. Two-thirds of voters said the president was a factor in how they voted, according to network exit polls. That allowed Democrats to win control of the House, and Republicans to expand their majority in the Senate. Here are 10 takeaways from the results:

1. Backlash to Trump materialized in the suburbs.

Nancy Pelosi looks poised to get her speaker’s gavel back after eight years as minority leader, and it’s thanks to college-educated suburban women. From Denver to Dallas and Detroit, the Democratic path ran through the suburbs. Republican incumbents went down in the ‘burbs outside Chicago (Peter Roskam), Minneapolis (Erik Paulsen), St. Paul (Jason Lewis), Houston (John Culberson) and even, unexpectedly, Oklahoma City (Steve Russell).

To underscore just how much of a drag Trump was in the suburbs of Kansas City, an openly lesbian Native American who used to be a professional kickboxer named Sharice Davids toppled Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.).

View the complete November 7 article by James Hohmann with Joanie Greve on the Washington Post website here.

Donald Trump’s Toughest Adversary? That Would Be Donald Trump

The following commentary by Stuart Rothenberg was posted on the Roll Call website August 7, 2018:

The president’s desire to hog the midterm spotlight guarantees a nationalization of the election

OPINION — While President Trump complains about the national media, Democrats, Robert S. Mueller’s Russian “witch hunt” and the political establishment, none of those things is why the November House elections are a major headache for the Republican Party. Donald Trump’s biggest problem is Donald Trump.

Trump has turned what could have been a challenging midterm election environment into a potentially disastrous one. Through his tweets and statements, the president continues to make the 2018 midterm elections a referendum on his first two years in office.

Of course, that could be a good thing, since unemployment is down, economic growth is up and ISIS is in retreat.

View the complete post here.

GOP strategists worry incumbents aren’t ready for a blue wave

The following article by Elena Schneider was posted on the Politico website November 15, 2017:

“We lost a dozen seats in 2006 that were preventable had incumbents had done their work, and at this point, we may be seeing the same thing in some seats,” said former Rep. Tom Davis, who once chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee. | Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images

Republican strategists are warning that some of the party’s veteran House incumbents aren’t adequately preparing for the 2018 election, putting the GOP majority at risk by their failure to recognize the dangerous conditions facing them.

Nearly three dozen Republicans were outraised by their Democratic challengers in the most recent fundraising quarter. Others, the strategists say, are failing to maintain high profiles in their districts or modernize their campaigns by using data analytics in what is shaping up as a stormy election cycle.

“There are certainly incumbent members out there who need to work harder and raise more money if they want to win,” said Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP’s top super PAC. “They’re fundamentally not prepared for how they’re about to be attacked.” Continue reading “GOP strategists worry incumbents aren’t ready for a blue wave”